Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shaun AndersonPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fraley doubled to left, Stephenson scored and Candelario scored, France to third.10–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 8De La Cruz homered to right center (428 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 7Bride singled to right, Edwards scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 7J. Sánchez grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, A. Sánchez scored, Burger out at second, Edwards to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 37–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6J. Sánchez homered to right center (480 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 5France homered to center (413 feet).7–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Marte homered to right center (371 feet), Fraley scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Friedl hit sacrifice fly to left, De La Cruz scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML CIN -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +18 Elo | CIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.928th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–27 | Road vs home | 22–3429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–51 | 51–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–31 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 49–41 |
| Overs–unders | 51–59–1 | 61–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.