San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Donovan SolanoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Solano homered to left (389 feet), Arraez scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 26–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 16–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 7J. Sánchez homered to right (393 feet), Burger scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7D. Peralta doubled to right, Merrill scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Cronenworth grounded out to pitcher, Arraez scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Profar grounded out to second, Campusano scored, Arraez to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5D. Peralta grounded out to first, Bogaerts scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Burger homered to center (396 feet), Edwards scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Hill scored on error, Edwards safe at first on error by first baseman Arraez.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Lopez singled to center, Burger scored, Bride to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML SD -200 / MIA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- SD: Elo 61.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -177
- MIA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 3.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +3 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +84 Elo | SD 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–23 | Road vs home | 23–3929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–55 | 53–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–40 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 51–45 |
| Overs–unders | 64–53–1 | 66–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–3 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.