San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Donovan SolanoBatting4-5, 4 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-3
- Kyle NicolasPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Solano singled to center, Wade scored and Profar scored.6–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Bogaerts singled to right, Profar scored, Solano to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Solano singled to left, D. Peralta scored and Wade scored, Profar to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Wade reached on infield single to shortstop, Merrill scored, D. Peralta to second.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML SD -160 / PIT +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- SD: Elo 55.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- PIT +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −10 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +40 Elo | SD 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 4th of 3030–23 | Road vs home | 27–2821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–53 | 58–51 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–38 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 61–51–1 | 53–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 1–5 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.