San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Merrill singled to left, Machado scored.6–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 10Machado doubled to center, Arraez scored and Cronenworth scored.5–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 10Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wade scored, Arraez third.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 9Merrill homered to center (400 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Machado doubled to center, Profar scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Bride homered to left (395 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Burger homered to left (428 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -135 / MIA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- SD: Elo 58.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | SD: Martin Perez: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +62 Elo | SD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–23 | Road vs home | 23–3729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–54 | 52–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 50–44 |
| Overs–unders | 63–52–1 | 65–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–3 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.