San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- David PeraltaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tellez singled to left, Bart scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9Arraez doubled to right, Higashioka scored.7–5
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 37–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 9Higashioka grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bogaerts scored on error and Merrill scored on throwing error by shortstop Cruz, Kim out at second.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7Bart homered to left center (419 feet), Cruz scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Bae singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Hayes to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Tellez scored on Edwards Jr. wild pitch, De La Cruz to second on wild pitch by Edwards Jr..4–2
- 6Tellez scored on Edwards Jr. wild pitch, De La Cruz to second on wild pitch by Edwards Jr..4–2
- 6Cruz singled to center, Reynolds scored, Cruz out stretching at second.4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2D. Peralta homered to right (389 feet), Merrill scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Machado homered to left (402 feet), Profar scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML SD -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +19 Elo | SD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3032–23 | Road vs home | 27–3024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–54 | 59–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 43–22 |
| Overs–unders | 62–52–1 | 54–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–5 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.