San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Taylor scored on Morejon wild pitch, Reynolds to second on wild pitch by Morejon, McCutchen to third on wild pitch by Morejon.9–8
- 10Taylor scored on Morejon wild pitch, Reynolds to second on wild pitch by Morejon, McCutchen to third on wild pitch by Morejon.9–8
- 10Reynolds walked, Cruz scored, McCutchen to second, Taylor to third.9–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 49–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 39–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 29–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 10Merrill hit sacrifice fly to left, Bogaerts scored.9–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–6
- 10Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Kim scored.8–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–6
- 10Bogaerts singled to left, Arraez scored, Kim to third.7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9Merrill homered to center (411 feet).6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6McCutchen singled to center, Hayes scored and Bae scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 5Merrill singled to right, Machado scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 4McCutchen homered to left (407 feet).4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Higashioka homered to center (420 feet), Solano scored and Merrill scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Reynolds singled to left, Triolo scored.1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML SD -165 / PIT +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- SD: Elo 56.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −4 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +43 Elo | SD 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 3031–23 | Road vs home | 27–2922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–53 | 58–52 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–38 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 42–22 |
| Overs–unders | 61–52–1 | 53–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–5 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.