San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arraez grounded out to first, Wade scored, Kim to third.9–8
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–8
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball 39–8
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 29–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 19–8
- 8Burger homered to right center (374 feet).8–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–8
- 8Arraez reached on infield single to second, Johnson scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 8Merrill homered to right center (400 feet), Bogaerts scored.7–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 7Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kim scored, Profar out at second, Higashioka to third.5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 7Arraez grounded out to first, D. Peralta scored, Higashioka to second, Kim to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 5Pereda singled to left, Lopez scored, Bruján to third.3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Hill hit sacrifice fly to center, Stowers scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Lopez doubled to right, J. Sánchez scored and Bride scored, Stowers to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML SD -200 / MIA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SD: Elo 61.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -177
- MIA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +79 Elo | SD 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3034–23 | Road vs home | 23–3829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–54 | 52–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–39 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 50–45 |
| Overs–unders | 63–53–1 | 65–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–3 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.