Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carroll homered to left center (396 feet), McCarthy scored.5–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–12
- 7McCarthy singled to center, Perdomo scored.5–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 7Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsh scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Stevenson singled to center, Realmuto scored, Marsh to third.4–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 7Marsh singled to right, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to third.3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 6Newman doubled to right, Suárez scored, Del Castillo to third.2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 5McCarthy tripled to right, Newman scored, Thomas scored and Perdomo scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 3Del Castillo scored on Sánchez wild pitch, Newman to third on wild pitch by Sánchez.2–5
- 3Del Castillo scored on Sánchez wild pitch, Newman to third on wild pitch by Sánchez.2–5
- 3Del Castillo singled to right, Bell scored and Suárez scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Suárez doubled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored, Bell to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Grichuk singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored, Bell to second.2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Bohm doubled to center, Harper scored and Turner scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / ARI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 48.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +7 Elo | ARI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 33–2610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–59 | 61–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–47 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 54–62–1 | 66–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–10 ARI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.
- Aug 10PHI 1 @ ARI 11Picked ARI 52%Hit
- Aug 9PHI 2 @ ARI 3Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Aug 8PHI 6 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Jun 23ARI 1 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 68%Hit
- Jun 22ARI 1 @ PHI 12Picked PHI 70%Hit
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Oct 24ARI 4 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Oct 23ARI 5 @ PHI 1PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Miss