Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Realmuto doubled to right, Bohm scored and Stott scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 7Bohm singled to center, Harper scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 4Schwarber homered to left center (376 feet), Realmuto scored, Sosa scored and Rojas scored.5–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 4Bride hit sacrifice fly to center, Burger scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4J. Sánchez singled to right, Edwards scored, Burger to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Harper grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rojas scored, Castellanos out at second.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Sosa grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Stott scored, Realmuto out at second.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Bride homered to left (387 feet), Burger scored and J. Sánchez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML MIA +135 / PHI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 65.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +107 Elo | PHI 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 3021–36 | Road vs home | 38–212nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–64 | 58–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 44–49 |
| Underdog | 53–45 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 67–51–1 | 55–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–12 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.