Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cowser grounded into fielder's choice to first, Mullins scored on error, Cowser safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Holliday out at second.9–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 9Ruiz singled to left, Abrams scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 8Chaparro doubled to left, Wood scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Young singled to right, Vargas scored, Young thrown out at second.7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Vargas singled to center, Wood scored and Chaparro scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4L. García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Chaparro scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Vargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Wood scored, Chaparro to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Santander homered to center (400 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Mountcastle singled to right, O'Hearn scored, Rutschman to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Yepez scored, Wood picked off and caught stealing second.2–0
- 1Yepez scored, Wood picked off and caught stealing second.2–0
- 1Wood singled to left, Abrams scored, Yepez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 64%
- ML WSH +165 / BAL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 61.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −3 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +82 Elo | BAL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 34–259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–54 | 64–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 44–46 |
| Underdog | 56–39 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders | 60–58–1 | 69–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–5 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.