Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rays- Dylan CarlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carlson homered to right (373 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Mullins homered to center (426 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5O'Hearn singled to center, McCann scored and Urías scored, Henderson to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Cowser homered to right center (398 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML BAL -135 / TB +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +22 Elo | BAL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–23 | Road vs home | 30–2919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–54 | 56–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 42–46 | 22–36 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders | 68–45–2 | 55–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 14–6 TB in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.