Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jon SingletonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Lowe singled to right, DeLuca scored and Díaz scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 7J. Lowe homered to left (339 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Díaz homered to right (344 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5J. Lowe homered to right (373 feet), B. Lowe scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Singleton homered to right (352 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML TB +130 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- TB +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +4 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +56 Elo | HOU 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 32–2411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–57 | 53–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 33–42 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 54–55 | 45–58–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–4 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.