Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-3
- Taj BradleyPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Lowe scored, Siri to second, Carlson to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Burleson doubled to right, Winn scored and Gorman scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Arenado doubled to left, Burleson scored and Contreras scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3B. Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Jackson scored, Díaz out at second.1–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Contreras singled to right, Winn scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML TB +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- STL: Elo 46.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | 0 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–26 | Road vs home | 29–2616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–57 | 55–58 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 17–36 |
| Underdog | 33–21 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 54–58 | 55–56–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–3 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.