Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 3B. Lowe doubled to right, Carlson scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML TB +135 / HOU -160
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | TB: Hunter Bigge (no track record yet) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +32 Elo | HOU 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 32–2511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–57 | 53–54 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 33–43 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 54–56 | 45–59–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–4 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.