Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caballero singled to right, Walls scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7B. Lowe homered to center (403 feet), Mead scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Walls scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3Goldschmidt singled to right, Arenado scored, Donovan to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 1Goldschmidt grounded out to third, Arenado scored.2–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 1Donovan doubled to left, Contreras scored, Arenado to third.2–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1Arenado singled to left, Winn scored, Contreras to second.2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Carlson singled to right, Díaz scored and B. Lowe scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML TB +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- STL: Elo 47.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +14 Elo | TB 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 30–2614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–58 | 56–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 18–36 |
| Underdog | 33–22 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 54–59 | 55–57–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–4 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.