Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Siri walked, Díaz scored, Carlson to second, Morel to third.7–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 47–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 37–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8Mountcastle reached on infield single to pitcher, Cowser scored, Henderson to second.7–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 8Urías homered to left center (418 feet), Holliday scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Caballero homered to left center (395 feet).4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5DeLuca doubled to left, Jackson scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Jackson doubled to left, Caballero scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5J. Lowe scored on throwing error by catcher Rutschman, Caballero stole second.4–1
- 5J. Lowe scored on throwing error by catcher Rutschman, Caballero stole second.4–1
- 2Holliday homered to right center (408 feet).4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Mountcastle singled to right, Henderson scored and Rutschman scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Rutschman doubled to center, Cowser scored, Henderson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -145 / TB +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +7 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +23 Elo | BAL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–23 | Road vs home | 30–3019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–54 | 56–59 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–46 | 22–36 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–46–2 | 55–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 15–6 TB in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.