Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Angels- Kevin PillarBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pillar singled to left, Schanuel scored.11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 7Kelenic grounded into fielder's choice to first, Ozuna scored and d'Arnaud scored on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Kelenic to second, Laureano out at second.11–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 211–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 111–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 6Pillar scored on Sale wild pitch.9–2
- 6Pillar scored on Sale wild pitch.9–2
- 6Pillar doubled to left, Schanuel scored, Pillar to third.9–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 29–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 5Laureano homered to center (426 feet), d'Arnaud scored.9–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–0
- 5d'Arnaud doubled to left, Ozuna scored and Harris II scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Merrifield homered to left (374 feet).5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2Harris II singled to left, Merrifield scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Ozuna homered to center (437 feet), Harris II scored and Riley scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML ATL -205 / LAA +170
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -181
- LAA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 3.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −7 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +78 Elo | ATL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.827th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3032–32 | Road vs home | 27–3828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–66 | 66–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–56 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 60–32 |
| Overs–unders | 45–73–3 | 59–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.