Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Wilson scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Turner hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Schwarber grounded out to shortstop, Sosa scored, Rojas to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Arcia homered to left (387 feet), Kelenic scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 50%
- ML PHI -110 / ATL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +16 Elo | ATL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 33–2611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–64 | 58–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 42–56 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 58–66–1 | 46–75–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–14 ATL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.