Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urshela walked, Olson scored, Arcia to second, Duvall to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 41–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Ozuna homered to center (432 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Realmuto singled to center, Bohm scored, Castellanos to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Harris II singled to center, Merrifield scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML PHI -160 / ATL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 48.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- ATL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +16 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +12 Elo | ATL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 32–2612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–63 | 57–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 47–51 | 42–56 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 58–65–1 | 46–74–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–13 ATL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.
- Jul 7PHI 0 @ ATL 6Picked ATL 59%Hit
- Jul 6PHI 1 @ ATL 5Picked ATL 52%Hit
- Jul 5PHI 8 @ ATL 6Picked ATL 54%Miss
- Mar 31ATL 4 @ PHI 5Picked ATL 57%Miss
- Mar 30ATL 12 @ PHI 4Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Mar 29ATL 9 @ PHI 3Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Oct 12ATL 1 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Hit
- Oct 11ATL 2 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Hit