Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Alex CallBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rojas singled to center, Wilson scored, Sosa to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 6Sosa singled to right, Castellanos scored, Wilson to second.1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Realmuto singled to center, Bohm scored, Castellanos to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Bohm singled to right, Turner scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Castellanos doubled to center, Bohm scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Call homered to right center (371 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML WSH +195 / PHI -235
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.0%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -207
- WSH +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 5.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +93 Elo | PHI 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3027–36 | Road vs home | 41–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–56 | 60–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 46–50 |
| Underdog | 58–41 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 62–60–1 | 57–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–14 PHI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.