Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wood homered to right center (417 feet).6–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Chaparro scored, Tena to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Marsh homered to right center (399 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Stott homered to right (359 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Blankenhorn singled to right, Tena scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Call homered to left (397 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Ruiz homered to right (386 feet), Wood scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Turner homered to center (410 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Castellanos singled to right, Turner scored, Bohm to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML WSH +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −11 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +76 Elo | PHI 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–37 | Road vs home | 42–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–57 | 61–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 47–50 |
| Underdog | 58–42 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 62–61–1 | 57–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–15 PHI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.