Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-4
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kelenic hit sacrifice fly to left, Ozuna scored, Laureano to second, Olson to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Moniak hit by pitch, Drury scored, Adell to second, Thaiss to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Laureano homered to left center (442 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Olson singled to left, Harris II scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -185 / LAA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −17 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 15th of 3033–32 | Road vs home | 27–3928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–66 | 66–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–56 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 60–33 |
| Overs–unders | 46–73–3 | 60–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.