Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Bohm scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Harper scored on Bubic wild pitch, Castellanos to second on wild pitch by Bubic, Bohm to third on wild pitch by Bubic.3–7
- 8Harper scored on Bubic wild pitch, Castellanos to second on wild pitch by Bubic, Bohm to third on wild pitch by Bubic.3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 5DeJong doubled to left, Renfroe scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Castellanos grounded out to third, Harper scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 22–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 3Renfroe homered to left center (412 feet), Melendez scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 3Perez homered to left center (434 feet), Pasquantino scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Pasquantino singled to right, Massey scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Marsh singled to right, Realmuto scored on error, Marsh safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Renfroe.1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Perez doubled to left, Pasquantino scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML PHI +115 / KC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- KC: Elo 50.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +6 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +3 Elo | KC 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 13th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 40–265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–64 | 72–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 32–31 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 58–68–1 | 56–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.