Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Paul DeJongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Neto homered to left (374 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Perez doubled to left, Pasquantino scored and Witt Jr. scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 7Adell doubled to left, Drury scored and Moniak scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4DeJong homered to left (397 feet), Frazier scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Perez singled to left, Massey scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 69%
- ML LAA +205 / KC -250
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- KC: Elo 59.3%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- KC -218
- LAA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | LAA: Carson Fulmer: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +66 Elo | KC 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 38–255th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–58 | 70–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 30–30 |
| Underdog | 60–34 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–64 | 55–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–5 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.