Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino homered to right (399 feet), Fermin scored and Witt Jr. scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 9Fermin doubled to left, Blanco scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Stephenson doubled to left, India scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Frazier singled to right, Pasquantino scored, Melendez to second.3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Perez reached on infield single to shortstop, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Witt Jr. homered to left center (430 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML KC +120 / CIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +6 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +50 Elo | CIN 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 31–3119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–52 | 68–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 30–30 | 29–32 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 39–21 |
| Overs–unders | 54–64–1 | 57–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 0–3 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.