Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- DL HallPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Steer hit sacrifice fly to left, Espinal scored, De La Cruz to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Adames singled to left, Sánchez scored, Contreras to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Stephenson homered to right center (372 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Espinal singled to center, Fairchild scored and Steer scored, Friedl thrown out at third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Ortiz homered to left (375 feet), Adames scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML CIN +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +59 Elo | MIL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 33–214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–53 | 64–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 26–35 |
| Underdog | 36–21 | 38–15 |
| Overs–unders | 56–60–1 | 66–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–16 MIL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.