Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fairchild homered to left center (426 feet), France scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7Steer homered to left (374 feet).1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 3Hoskins reached on infield single to second, Frelick scored.0–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Frelick tripled to right, Contreras scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Turang homered to left center (383 feet), Ortiz scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–6
- 2Ortiz doubled to center, Bauers scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Adames homered to right (391 feet), Chourio scored and Mitchell scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML CIN +130 / MIL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −14 | CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 31–216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–52 | 63–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 38–15 |
| Overs–unders | 55–59–1 | 65–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–14 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.