Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4
- Nick MartinezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoskins homered to left center (405 feet).0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML CIN +125 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +14 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +73 Elo | MIL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 32–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–53 | 64–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 26–34 |
| Underdog | 35–21 | 38–15 |
| Overs–unders | 56–59–1 | 66–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–15 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.