St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arenado homered to left (400 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Candelario homered to right (369 feet), Friedl scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2France homered to right (353 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Steer singled to center, Stephenson scored, Friedl to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML STL +115 / CIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +46 Elo | CIN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 29–3121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–61 | 66–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–38 | 28–32 |
| Underdog | 39–23 | 38–21 |
| Overs–unders | 58–58–2 | 56–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–10 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.