St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Isbel tripled to right, Blanco scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 8Contreras reached on infield single to second, Donovan scored on throwing error by second baseman Garcia.3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Perez homered to right center (395 feet), Witt Jr. scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Witt Jr. tripled to center, Garcia scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Garcia singled to right, Isbel scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Fermin singled to left, DeJong scored, Melendez to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Witt Jr. grounded out to first, Isbel scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Goldschmidt homered to center (430 feet), Arenado scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML STL +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- KC: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +29 Elo | KC 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3029–30 | Road vs home | 37–257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–59 | 65–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–37 | 29–30 |
| Underdog | 39–22 | 36–20 |
| Overs–unders | 57–57–2 | 51–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–4 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.