Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Witt Jr. homered to center (421 feet).4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 4Pasquantino homered to right (390 feet), Witt Jr. scored.4–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 4Witt Jr. doubled to right, Massey scored and Garcia scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 4Melendez scored on Crawford wild pitch, Garcia to second on wild pitch by Crawford.4–3
- 4Melendez scored on Crawford wild pitch, Garcia to second on wild pitch by Crawford.4–3
- 4D. Jansen homered to left (382 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3González homered to left (405 feet), Sogard scored and Refsnyder scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 2Massey singled to right, Melendez scored, Isbel to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left (357 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 56%
- ML BOS +115 / KC -140
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- KC: Elo 51.5%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -125
- BOS +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +10 Elo | KC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3034–23 | Road vs home | 36–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–61 | 64–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–41 | 28–29 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 36–20 |
| Overs–unders | 58–53–2 | 49–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–3 KC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.