Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hamilton homered to right (386 feet).7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 6Abreu homered to right center (430 feet), Devers scored and Wong scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 36–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Duran homered to right center (400 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Abreu homered to left center (394 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Duran doubled to center, Hamilton scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Jung homered to left (373 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Seager homered to right (380 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML BOS +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +11 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +46 Elo | TEX 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–23 | Road vs home | 30–2411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–61 | 47–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–41 | 23–43 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 55–53–2 | 50–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.