Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Refsnyder doubled to left, Rafaela scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 6Smith singled to right, Heim scored, Taveras to second.3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 6Taveras reached on infield single to shortstop, Duran scored, Heim to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Duran singled to center, García scored, Jung to second.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 4Taveras homered to right (368 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Heim homered to right (368 feet), Jung scored and Duran scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Wong singled to left, Devers scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Refsnyder homered to left center (400 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Refsnyder homered to left (399 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML BOS -105 / TEX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −9 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +8 Elo | TEX 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–22 | Road vs home | 29–2413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–60 | 46–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–41 | 22–43 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 54–53–2 | 49–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.