Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith doubled to right, Wong scored.11–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–6
- 9Devers homered to right (377 feet).10–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 110–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–6
- 7Seager hit sacrifice fly to center, Kelly scored.9–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 6Semien homered to left center (400 feet), Seager scored.9–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–5
- 6Rafaela homered to left center (400 feet), Sogard scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 5Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 4Sogard singled to right, Wong scored and Abreu scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Abreu singled to left, Devers scored, Wong to second.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Wong singled to right, O'Neill scored, Devers to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Seager homered to right center (410 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Taveras homered to right (352 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 32–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML BOS -105 / TEX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −14 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +13 Elo | TEX 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–22 | Road vs home | 29–2312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–60 | 46–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–41 | 22–42 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 53–53–2 | 48–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.