Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino homered to right center (415 feet).9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Wong singled to left, Yoshida scored, Devers thrown out at third.9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 7Garcia doubled to center, Frazier scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Frazier doubled to left, Massey scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 38–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7González homered to center (452 feet), Wong scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Devers scored on Zerpa wild pitch, Wong to third on wild pitch by Zerpa.6–2
- 7Devers scored on Zerpa wild pitch, Wong to third on wild pitch by Zerpa.6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Wong doubled to left, Yoshida scored, Devers to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Duran doubled to left, Rafaela scored and Sogard scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Fermin reached on infield single to pitcher, Massey scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML BOS +110 / KC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- KC: Elo 53.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +27 Elo | KC 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3032–23 | Road vs home | 36–224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–61 | 64–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–41 | 28–27 |
| Underdog | 30–20 | 36–20 |
| Overs–unders | 56–53–2 | 47–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–3 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.