Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Melendez doubled to right, Pasquantino scored and Perez scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Yoshida singled to right, Rafaela scored and Sogard scored, Refsnyder to second.6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Smith scored on Lugo wild pitch, Sogard to second on wild pitch by Lugo.4–3
- 6Smith scored on Lugo wild pitch, Sogard to second on wild pitch by Lugo.4–3
- 5Pasquantino doubled to center, Witt Jr. scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Massey homered to right center (434 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Yoshida homered to right (383 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Rafaela grounded out to first, Smith scored, Hamilton to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Hamilton hit a ground rule double, Wong scored, Smith to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–1
- 1Pasquantino singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML BOS +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- KC: Elo 53.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +25 Elo | KC 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–23 | Road vs home | 36–234th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–61 | 64–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–41 | 28–28 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 36–20 |
| Overs–unders | 57–53–2 | 48–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–3 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.