St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to left (424 feet), Burleson scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Scott II doubled to right, Donovan scored and Pham scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 6Pham grounded out to shortstop, Goldschmidt scored, Gorman to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 4Massey hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Garcia doubled to left, Melendez scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Perez singled to left, Massey scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Massey singled to center, Isbel scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Isbel tripled to center, Garcia scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Burleson homered to right (377 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Contreras homered to right (382 feet), Winn scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML STL +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- KC: Elo 53.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −12 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +25 Elo | KC 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 37–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–59 | 65–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–37 | 29–29 |
| Underdog | 38–22 | 36–20 |
| Overs–unders | 56–57–2 | 50–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–4 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.