St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Steer homered to left center (390 feet), Fraley scored and Benson scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 11–6
- 3De La Cruz homered to right center (399 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Steer homered to left (360 feet), Fraley scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Arenado singled to left, Contreras scored, Pham to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML STL -150 / CIN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.7 pts
- STL: Elo 42.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +50 Elo | CIN 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 28–3122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–60 | 65–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–37 | 28–32 |
| Underdog | 39–23 | 37–21 |
| Overs–unders | 58–57–2 | 56–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–9 CIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.