Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Margot hit sacrifice fly to center, Lewis scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Wallner singled to right, Larnach scored, Lewis to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Frazier singled to right, Melendez scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 2Lewis homered to left (389 feet), Larnach scored.2–6
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 32–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 2Castro homered to right (386 feet), Jeffers scored and Martin scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Martin singled to right, Santana scored, Jeffers to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Isbel singled to right, Frazier scored, Garcia to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left center (401 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML KC +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- KC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −7 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 34–236th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–50 | 56–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–30 | 35–44 |
| Underdog | 36–20 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 52–63–1 | 60–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–14 MIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.