Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wallner grounded out to second, Castro scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Bo Naylor homered to right (386 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Kwan homered to right center (396 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML CLE -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 34–214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–56 | 56–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 35–42 |
| Underdog | 30–19 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 60–54–2 | 60–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–8 MIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.