Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Farmer hit sacrifice fly to right, Kepler scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike - Pitch Timer Violation 12–4
- 7Rocchio homered to right center (367 feet), Giménez scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Jeffers homered to left (358 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Santana homered to left (413 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Lewis grounded out to third, Margot scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML CLE +145 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +14 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +54 Elo | MIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 32–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–54 | 54–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 33–42 |
| Underdog | 30–17 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 59–53–2 | 59–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–6 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.