Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Josh WinderPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bethancourt doubled to left, Swanson scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 8Swanson singled to left, Tauchman scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Happ homered to right (376 feet), Bethancourt scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 3Busch scored on Richards wild pitch, Suzuki to second on wild pitch by Richards.2–4
- 3Busch scored on Richards wild pitch, Suzuki to second on wild pitch by Richards.2–4
- 3Paredes hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored, Busch to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Suzuki walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Busch to second, Happ to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 42–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Lee grounded out to second, Santana scored, Kepler to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 13 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 22–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML MIN -145 / CHC +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -130
- CHC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 3.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +2 Elo | CHC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 3031–28 | Road vs home | 31–2715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–57 | 57–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–41 | 15–36 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 42–22 |
| Overs–unders | 58–53 | 51–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.