Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Manuel MargotBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-3
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Wallner scored, Kepler out at second.3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Margot homered to left center (376 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Lewis hit sacrifice fly to center, Castro scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / CHC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −16 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 30–2615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–56 | 56–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–41 | 14–36 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 57–52 | 50–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.