Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Isaac ParedesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong singled to left, Hoerner scored, Swanson to second.3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Vázquez homered to left (381 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Swanson scored on Dobnak wild pitch.2–6
- 6Swanson scored on Dobnak wild pitch.2–6
- 6Swanson tripled to right, Hoerner scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Lewis homered to left center (365 feet), Santana scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Paredes singled to right, Busch scored, Paredes out stretching at second.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Paredes homered to left (364 feet), Suzuki scored and Bellinger scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML MIN -110 / CHC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +11 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +8 Elo | CHC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 30–2716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–56 | 56–58 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–41 | 14–36 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 42–22 |
| Overs–unders | 57–53 | 50–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.