Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vázquez scored on a balk.3–6
- 7Vázquez scored on a balk.3–6
- 5Wallner homered to right (390 feet), Castro scored and Larnach scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5J. Naylor homered to right (376 feet), Kwan scored and Brennan scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 2Martin reached on infield single to shortstop, Vázquez scored on throwing error by shortstop Rocchio.0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Lewis walked, Castro stole home, Wallner to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −7 | CLE: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +27 Elo | MIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 33–214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–55 | 55–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 34–42 |
| Underdog | 30–18 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 59–54–2 | 59–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–7 MIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.