Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- David FestaPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Buxton homered to left (366 feet), Lewis scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6Brennan doubled to center, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Kwan singled to left, Schneemann scored, Rocchio to second.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Rocchio singled to right, Giménez scored, Schneemann to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Fry homered to left center (405 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Ramírez homered to right center (372 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Buxton homered to left (378 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML CLE +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +5 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +23 Elo | MIN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–29 | Road vs home | 34–225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–56 | 56–59 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 35–43 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 60–55–2 | 60–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 13–8 MIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.