Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Twins- Max KeplerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Farmer homered to left center (427 feet), Martin scored.3–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–13
- 6Kepler homered to right (382 feet), Miranda scored and Santana scored.3–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–11
- 6Perez homered to center (430 feet).3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 5Vázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Santana scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 12–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 5Margot reached on infield single to shortstop, Miranda scored, Kepler to second, Santana to third.2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Kepler singled to left, Wallner scored, Santana to second, Miranda to third.2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 5Massey doubled to center, Isbel scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Vázquez homered to center (417 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Miranda doubled to left, Wallner scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Melendez homered to right (405 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Lewis scored on error and Wallner scored on error, Miranda safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Garcia, Miranda safe at second on error.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Lewis singled to center, Castro scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML KC +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +43 Elo | MIN 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 35–234th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–51 | 57–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–30 | 36–44 |
| Underdog | 36–21 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 53–63–1 | 61–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–15 MIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.