St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz doubled to left, Marte scored.2–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Friedl homered to right center (368 feet).2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 6Arenado singled to left, Burleson scored, Contreras to second.2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 6Burleson singled to center, Winn scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Fraley reached on infield single to second, Steer scored, Candelario to second.0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 5Friedl homered to right (400 feet).0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5India homered to center (416 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Stephenson homered to right center (390 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3India homered to left center (383 feet), Benson scored and Marte scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- STL: Elo 43.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −10 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Emilio Pagan: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +43 Elo | CIN 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3029–33 | Road vs home | 30–3119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–62 | 67–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–38 | 29–32 |
| Underdog | 39–24 | 38–21 |
| Overs–unders | 58–59–2 | 56–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–11 CIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.