Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Paul DeJongBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pasquantino doubled to left, Garcia scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6DeJong homered to left center (435 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Santana homered to left (404 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left center (398 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Isbel grounded out to pitcher, DeJong scored, Fermin to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- KC: Elo 42.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 36–234th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–52 | 58–60 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–30 | 37–44 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 54–63–1 | 62–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–16 MIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.