Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Dairon BlancoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting3-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino singled to left, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to second.8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 9Witt Jr. singled to right, Isbel scored, Garcia to third.7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Isbel doubled to second, Frazier scored, Melendez to third.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Melendez singled to right, Fermin scored, Frazier to third.5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7India walked, Espinal scored, Maile to second, France to third.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 44–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Blanco homered to center (413 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Perez hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pasquantino singled to right, Blanco scored, Witt Jr. to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- KC: Elo 46.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +26 Elo | CIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 15th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 31–3321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–52 | 68–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–30 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 39–22 | 39–21 |
| Overs–unders | 55–65–1 | 58–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–3 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.